Dr.J.Bertrand CHUNG

Dear and Glorious Physician

My Facebook account, Twitter account, and this webpage/webblog are now copyrighted entities and I forbid anyone to use or publish information that I have originally published or posted previously albeit deleted without my express permission. (c) - Dr. Bertrand Chung. - 31/01/2019

Climate Change article by Dr. Bertrand Chung - part 1 of 3, sent to the UN on 11.1.19, posted to this blog on 31.01.19

TITLE OF ESSAY: TACKLING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BY ASSESSING SIGNS AND INDICATORS (CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH) AND CAUSES IN MAURITIUS ISLAND, INDIAN OCEAN 1. Introduction: To investigate Climate Change, we must look at Indicators for Climate Change. Usual indicators are CO2 emissions, photosynthesis, state of Corals, abundance of sea, plant, tree/wood and food resources. But health is an important subset indicator for Climate Change since it is known that Climate Change drivers are a major cause of the 7 million air pollution-related deaths annually and cannot be over-looked. However, health indicators are not included in SDG monitoring for Climate Change. I will attempt to do so for MAURITIUS. 2. Background: Climate Change is caused by harmful emission of Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Carbon emissions are only 1 indicator of 1 greenhouse gas. (Others: - CH4 & N2O) Note that Mauritius is a heavy user of harmful chemicals (incl. narcotic use, esp./ Novel Psychoactive Substances, also called as, “Synthétiques” locally.) Mauritian GHG emissions from 1960 to 2014, excluding the high -level -of -engineering- and -building- construction period 2014-2018, is as follows: - Serial No. Country name CO2 emissions (1960) CO2 emissions (2014) 1 MAURITIUS 0.3 3.4 (steady rise – 11.3x) 2 AUSTRALIA 8.6 15.4 3 BAHRAIN 3.5 23.4 4 CHILE 1.7 4.7 5 CHINA 1.2 7.5 6 COLOMBIA 1.0 1.8 7 INDIA 0.3 1.7 8 IRAN 1.7 8.3 9 IRAQ 1.1 4.8 10 ISRAEL 3.1 7.9 11 FRANCE 5.8 4.6 12 UK 11.2 6.5 13 USA 16.0 16.5 14 UAE 0.1 23.3 15 *High Income 7.4 10.7 (x1.45) 16 Low and Middle Inc. 1.0 3.5 17 *Low Income - 0.3 (+0.3) 18 Lower Middle Inc. 0.4 1.5 19 *Middle Inc. 1.1 3.9 (x4) 20 Upper Middle Inc. 1.7 6.6 Table: Arbitrary list of 20 countries and the CO2 emissions from them in metric tons/capita starting from 1960 till 2014. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=MU 3. Signs/Indicators of Climate Change in Mauritius: - SIDS, i.e. Small Island Developing States, including Mauritius, have the steepest rise of CO2 emissions in LMIC countries (over 11x for Mauritius) over 50 years. Plot diagram: showing CO2 emissions in metric tons/capita versus year for Mauritius from 1960 till 2014. It can safely be said that CO2 emissions in Mauritius rose steadily since 1982 (0,5 metric tons per capita) till 2018 (3,4 metric tons/capita), i.e. statistically 6.8x greater and 2.9 tons more in 36 years, meaning a rate going up by 0.08 ton per year. W.r.t CO2 emissions, Mauritius as a small country believes that climate change will not affect it and thus does not care about ecological aspects of any of its endeavours/projects. Yet, since the world is interconnected, a global village, and, “we all live in the same aquarium”, the lax policies regarding climate change that are prevalent in Mauritius are prevalent around the World, and thus Mauritius last year (2018) had tremendous climate change signs in that we had: - (a) Terrible, frightening thunder and lightning storms, even during a bright day in March to April. (Usually such cyclonic weather occurs from February to March.) On several occasions, many big trees in the neighbourhood and around Mauritius were struck (halved in two) by lightning. (b) Cyclonic weather in December of 2018, (but the cyclone did not persist, fortunately.) (c) Sea urchin and box jelly fish proliferation on the West Coast of Mauritius from December till January 2019, suggesting sea pollution. (d) Presence of dolphins, as well as whales (“cétacés”) on the West Coast, namely at Albion. (e) Extreme scarcity of, alternating with seasons of plenty, of water – leads me to believe that climate change is responsible. Currently many small villages have no water and water is being sold by water-tankers. This is also a result of the Metro- Express construction by Larsen and Toubro. (f) A temperature of up to 36 degrees Celsius for the 2018/2019 festive season was recorded, in which 484 Megawatts of Energy was utilised. (up from the forecasted 478 Megawatts) Of the 484, 37 Megawatts were provided by Photovoltaic farms to account for the energetic shortage. – Le Défi Quotidien – 10 January 2019 page 3: “consommation énergétique: Record de 484 megawatts pour le CEB.” The heat wave is reported by many Mauritians during the December-January season 2018/2019. Although temperature for example stood at 28 degrees Celsius, people noted the “glare” of the sunny weather, suggesting another sign of impending/looming climate change.        --------> Epidemics and NCD Indicators

Climate Change article by Dr. Bertrand Chung - Figure 1 - sent to the UN on 11.1.19, posted to this blog on 31.01.2019